Your Groceries Are
Getting More Expensive.
Here's the Truth.
47.9 million Americans can't afford enough food right now. It's going to get worse — unless Congress acts. Here's what's causing it, what's coming, and the 14-step plan that fixes it.
Food Insecure
Can't Afford Food
Fired in 2025
Biggest Ever
Your Grocery Bill Is Going Up.
Here's Why.
The last time you went grocery shopping, did it cost more than you expected? You're not imagining it. And it's not your fault.
A family of four is already paying about $2,600 more per year for food than they were in 2025. If nothing changes, that number could hit $9,500 extra per year by 2032 — nearly $800 extra every single month just for food.
There's no single reason. It's six problems hitting at the same time — like six leaks in the same boat. And the people paid to fix it? The government just fired 27% of the USDA workers who protect our food supply.
Here's the good news: we know exactly what to do. Gregory Burgess, MPH — a public health expert running for Congress — wrote a clear 14-point plan. This page walks you through what's wrong and how to fix it.
"No food, no people. Every bill we debate, every value we hold — it all depends on a population that is adequately fed. Food security is not a special interest. It is the precondition for everything else."
— Gregory Burgess, MPH · Agricultural Resilience Imperative, March 2026- The government cancelled the hunger survey in 2025. We can no longer measure who's going hungry.
- America has the fewest cows since 1951. Beef and dairy will stay expensive for years — no quick fix.
- The Iran conflict pushed fertilizer prices up 30%+ in just weeks. No fertilizer = smaller harvests = higher prices.
- Climate change is already destroying crops. Harvests could be 24% smaller by 2100 if nothing changes.
- Congress cut $187 billion from food stamps — the single biggest cut in 60 years — right when prices are spiking.
Why Is Food Getting So Expensive?
It's not one big problem. It's six problems hitting at the same time. Each one alone would be bad. All six together? That's a food crisis.
The Hormuz Problem
There's a narrow waterway called the Strait of Hormuz. About one-third of the world's fertilizer travels through it. The Iran conflict disrupted it. Less fertilizer means higher food prices — everywhere.
Not Enough Cows
America has the fewest cows since 1951. You can't grow a herd fast — cows take years. Beef and dairy will stay expensive through at least 2030–2031 no matter what. The herd is still shrinking.
Fertilizer Costs More
Most fertilizer is made from natural gas. When gas prices go up, fertilizer goes up. When fertilizer goes up, every crop costs more to grow — which means everything at the store costs more too.
We Can't Measure the Problem
In 2025, the government cancelled the Household Food Security Survey — the only tool that measured hunger in America. You can't fix a problem you refuse to count. Congress cancelled the measuring stick.
Food Stamps Were Cut
The 2025 budget cut $187 billion from SNAP food stamps — the biggest cut in 60 years. But USDA's own data shows that every $1 in food stamps generates $1.54 in economic activity. Cutting food stamps hurts farmers too.
Climate Is Shrinking Harvests
Climate change is already making farming harder. Droughts, floods, and extreme heat are destroying crops. If nothing changes, global food harvests could be 24% smaller by 2100. That hits prices for everything.
The Scale of the Crisis
These are not small problems. These are numbers that affect every family in CA-2 — and across America.
What Your Grocery Bill Could Look Like
Gregory Burgess published a companion report showing what food prices will look like under five different scenarios. These aren't guesses — they're projections based on real policy decisions Congress can make. The extra amounts are per year, per family of four.
Think of these like weather forecasts — not exact, but based on real data. If Congress does nothing, your family pays $12,500 more per year for food by 2036. If Congress passes the full plan in this report, food prices could actually drop below where they are today by 2041.
🔴 Worst Case — Congress Does Nothing (OBBBA Baseline)
🟡 Middle — Partial Action (Some Programs Pass)
🟢 Best Case — Full 14-Point Plan Passes
Source: American Food Prices 2026–2050: Five-Scenario Policy Projection · Gregory Burgess, MPH · March 2026. Every number cited from peer-reviewed or government sources.
The 14-Point Fix — Explained Simply
The full plan has 14 specific things Congress can do right now. Here are the most important — explained in plain English. Every recommendation is backed by peer-reviewed research with sources you can check.
Bring Back the Food Survey
In 2025, the government cancelled the survey that tells us how many Americans are hungry. You can't fix a problem you won't measure. Congress needs to restart this immediately — it costs almost nothing.
No cost to restartStop the Bird Flu Gap
H5N1 bird flu is spreading to California dairy cows and seals. The USDA team that watches for it just got cut by 25%. One big outbreak could add 15–30% to dairy and egg prices overnight — affecting every grocery shopper.
Prevents major price spikeTurn Forest Fires into Farm Soil
Every year, wildfires burn millions of acres in the West. All that wood is waste — unless we use it. Mix wood chips with cow manure, compost it, spread it on farms. Healthier soil, cheaper fertilizer, 100,000 new jobs in CA-2 counties.
100,000 rural jobsHelp Farms Use Less Chemical Fertilizer
Most fertilizer is made from fossil fuels. When gas prices spike, food prices spike. This plan helps farms switch to natural nitrogen — cover crops, compost, crop rotation. Farms that make the switch are protected from the next Strait of Hormuz disruption.
50% reduction in 15 yearsSave the Pacific Fisheries
California's salmon fishery has been closed three years in a row. 95% of coastal kelp forests are gone. A joint NOAA-USDA program can restore these fisheries. Fishermen who can't fish get paid to help restore the ocean while it heals.
5% of protein supply protectedMake Food a National Security Issue
Defense gets a protected budget. Food shouldn't be cut every election cycle. This recommendation creates a National Food Security Infrastructure Act — giving food the same long-term protection as defense. A hungry nation cannot defend itself.
Long-term protectionProtect SNAP's Farm Economy Multiplier
Every $1 in food stamps creates $1.54 in economic activity — most of it going to farms and local grocery stores. The $187 billion cut to SNAP doesn't just hurt hungry families. It directly reduces farm income across CA-2.
Protects farm incomeFix the Pest Management Failure
In 2023, Modoc County ranchers lost $52 million to grasshopper outbreaks while the government moved too slowly. This recommendation creates a $5 billion Pest Suppression Trust Fund with a legal mandate to respond fast — before the crops are gone.
$5B trust fund · Modoc CountyHelp Farms Go Organic
Organic farms use less chemical fertilizer and are more resistant to drought. But switching takes 3 years — and farmers lose money during that period. This plan pays farms to make the switch, with special focus on drought-resistant crops for dry CA-2 counties.
15–25 year transition planFeed Cattle Seaweed — Cut Methane 82%
A special seaweed called Asparagopsis cuts methane from cattle burps by up to 82%. This isn't science fiction — it's been proven in peer-reviewed studies. Developing a seaweed farming industry off CA-2's coast would help ranchers, clean the ocean, and reduce greenhouse gas.
82% methane reductionInclude Tribal Knowledge in Food Policy
Indigenous peoples have managed these lands and waters for thousands of years. Their Traditional Ecological Knowledge — how to fish sustainably, how to manage forests with fire, how to farm without fossil fuels — is not folklore. It's science with a very long track record.
Equal standing with Western scienceFix the Fake Carbon Credit Problem
87% of voluntary carbon credits deliver no real reductions — they're junk. But farmers and ranchers who actually build healthy soil and sequester carbon deserve real payment for it. This recommendation requires real verification and performance bonds for every credit.
Real verification requiredHelp the Emerald Triangle Transition
When cannabis went legal statewide, prices crashed from $3,000/lb to $300 — wiping out small family farms in Humboldt and Mendocino. Their greenhouses and irrigation systems are still there. This plan helps convert them to gourmet mushrooms, microgreens, and specialty crops.
Humboldt · MendocinoHelp Beginning Farmers Get Land
Big corporations now own more and more of America's farmland. This plan creates a voluntary program where corporate-owned farmland is offered to beginning farmers, veterans, and people from communities historically excluded from farming — through rent-to-own deals with no eminent domain.
Voluntary only · No eminent domainTwo Problems. One Solution.
The most creative — and cost-effective — idea in the entire plan. It solves the wildfire crisis AND the farm soil crisis at the same time. The same action that protects your house from wildfire also makes your food cheaper.
The Wildfire Problem
Western forests have too many trees. When they burn, it costs the U.S. up to $893 billion a year. When crews thin the forest, all the cut wood just piles up with nowhere to go. Currently it gets burned — wasting a resource.
The Solution: Mix It
Forest wood chips are high in carbon. Cow manure is high in nitrogen. Mix them together — you get perfect compost. Heat it to 160°F, let it break down, and you get premium farm soil amendment that replaces chemical fertilizer.
The Farm Gain
Spread it on farms. Soil gets healthier. Farmers need less chemical fertilizer. Crops resist bugs and disease better. Food costs go down. 100,000 rural jobs are created in the CA-2 counties that need them most.
"This one idea simultaneously prevents wildfire costs, builds agricultural soil, creates rural employment, and sequesters carbon. These are not competing values. They are a single, integrated investment."
— Agricultural Resilience Imperative · Gregory Burgess, MPH · March 2026The Research Behind the Plan
Every claim in this plan is sourced from peer-reviewed studies, USDA reports, and verified government data. These are the original documents — free to download, free to check, free to challenge. That's what Show Your Work means.
⚠️ Three small errors were found in the Point Reyes mailer after publication. Each one is named, corrected, and explained on the Research Corrections page →
What You Can Do
These are your grocery bills, your family's food, your community's farms and forests. Here's how to get involved.
Read the Plan
The full 14-point Agricultural Resilience Imperative is free to download. Every claim has a source. Read it yourself — that's what "Show Your Work" means.
Download Free →Vote on June 2, 2026
The CA-2 primary is June 2, 2026. Register by May 18. Gregory Burgess submitted this food security plan to 89 congressional offices before asking for a single vote.
Register to Vote →Spread the Word
Share this page with your neighbors, your farmers market, your fishing community. The people most affected by food prices are often the last to hear about the policies causing them.
Volunteer or Connect →The Plan Is Already Written
38+ fully drafted bills. Every claim sourced. Every dollar accounted for. A campaign that runs on community presence, not advertising. Show Your Work — start to finish.